Before kick off
1. Odds can go up and down before the event even started. At times these changes can be pretty big. Reason for the change are usually factors which influence the game like injuries, suspensions, motivation and so on. Over a longer period you will find reoccuring bias and thats where you act. Trading before kick off is the skill of judging the way odds are going to change.
Trading is done best at betting exchanges like Betfair, Betdaq or Betsson. Playing at only one provider saves you unneccessary calculating as this is all done by the exchange.
If you suspect odds to fall you would buy these odds (BACK) first. Once the odds have fallen you would than sell (LAY). The „What if“ figure and eventual profit/loss will be shown by your betting exchange immediately. .
If you suspect odds to rise, you would Lay the current odds first before Backing them once they have risen.
Timing is of greatest importance and can only be improved with experience. This will take time. Be prepared to take small losses rather than risk all if odds dont develop the way you anticipated.
2. This system can also be used for ouright markets. The odds will change in relation to the position the team/athlete is in. The odds are seen similarly to the price of shares at the stock market. The odds of a team winnig a tournament for example will become smaller after progressing to the next round.
3.3. More often then not it is worth looking at exactly the same bet at different markets for one event. You can find them to have different odds so you can trade yourself a little profit.
These bets are for example:
- 3 way (1X2) is equivalent to the Asian Handicap -0,5
- No goalscorer is equivalent to correct score 0:0
- Winning nationality is equivalent to winning athlete
During the event (In Play)
Trading can also be done while the event is taking place. If you intend to trade „In Play“ please ensure yourself the event will go „In Play“ before placing a bet as not all events do so.
The odds will change more violently depending on the happening at the event. At football, goals or red cards are the main cause for big changes of odds. Here are 3 different strategies while trading „In Play“.
1. 1. LAY X (Football, Hockey...) For this system you need 2 fairly similarly strong teams. The draw is being „layed“ before the Kick off. The aim is for one team to score a goal (more than 85% of football games have min. 1 goal ) which will raise the odds for the draw as it is now less likely. The Draw will now be „backed“ at higher odds than it was „layed“ before. With the right stake it will garantee a profit at any result of the event. If the game stays goalless for a long time you have to decide to either trade out with a small loss or risk all by letting it run to the end (speculating for a late goal).
2. 2. Win/Loss (Basketball, Volleyball...): This system suits particularly Basketball games. The favourite does not always start off well which makes their winning odds rise quite a bit. It is now when the higher odds are being „backed“. Once the favourite found their stride and start controlling the game, their odds will drop back down again. Now the favourites should be „layed“ (at lower odds than „backed“). This will again garantee a profit whatever the outcome of the game.
3. 3. Over/Under (Football, Hockey...): Watching a football game you usually can judge the type of game, meaning a very attacking game or with the focus on defense. A very open game is likely to have many goals. In this case the Over 2.5 should be „backed“. After an early goal the odds will go down as it is now more likey to be a game with more than 2.5 goals. The lower odds should now be „layed“ to garantee a profit at any outcome of the game.
The basics are always the same.
You need to recognise the movement of odds and take advantage of it. Sports like Soccer, American Football, Basketball, Tennis or Hockey are very well suited for trading due to the relatively big changes of odds In Play. But beware, please study odds and their movements accurately as this strategy requires experience and a lot of practice. Please do not just gamble as this is likely to end in tears.